'I'm not sure I really get why the US and Israel haven't yet come to
terms with the fact that this fourth generation war cannot be won with
classic military action. I suspect it is the neocon influence which,
throughout many decades, never gave a passing thought to terrorism or
assymetrical warfare. They have been stuck in a cold war mindset (a
mindset that was wrong about the cold war too) and have consistently
seen the world through the prism of rogue totalitarian states. This is
why, in spite of the fact that everything is going to hell in a
handbasket in a hundred different ways, they persist in focusing on
Iran (formerly Iraq) and ignoring all the moving parts that make their
aggressive plans to "confront" these regimes simpleminded and doomed to
failure.'
--Digby
Myself, I keep going back to my no
doubt sloppy and imperfect understanding of Thomas S. Kuhn's The
Structure Of Scientific Revolutions. If the theory of "fourth
generation war" is viewed as a new paradigm (and it seems to me to meet
the criteria) then this is more than a failure of perception on the
part of neoconservatives.
Consider the following, from the Wikipedia entry on SSR:
'According
to Kuhn, the scientific paradigms before and after a paradigm shift are
so different that their theories are incomparable. The paradigm shift
does not just change a single theory, it changes the way that words are
defined, the way that the scientists look at their subject and, perhaps
most importantly, the questions that are considered valid and the rules
used to determine the truth of a particular theory. Kuhn observes that
they are incommensurable — literally, lacking comparison,
untranslatable. New theories were not, as they had thought of before,
simply extensions of old theories, but radically new worldviews. This
incommensurability applies not just before and after a paradigm shift,
but between conflicting paradigms. It is simply not possible, according
to Kuhn, to construct an impartial language that can be used to perform
a neutral comparison between conflicting paradigms, because the very
terms used belong within the paradigm and are therefore different in
different paradigms. Advocates of mutually exclusive paradigms are in
an insidious position: "Though each may hope to convert the other to
his way of seeing science and its problems, neither may hope to prove
his case. The competition between paradigms is not the sort of battle
that can be resolved by proof." (SSR, p. 148).'
This would
explain, it seems to me, the apparently literal impossibility of
explaining the fundamentally counterproductive nature of the United
State's invasion of Iraq, or of what's currently going on in Lebanon,
to those who disagree. Or, literally, vice versa. If you're behind the
curve on the paradigm shift, if I'm reading Kuhn at all correctly,
you're literally incapable of getting it. Or vice versa. "It is simply
not possible, according to Kuhn, to construct an impartial language
that can be used to perform a neutral comparison between conflicting
paradigms, because the very terms used belong within the paradigm and
are therefore different in different paradigms."
The bad news
is that the policy-makers of the United States and Israel apparently
(still) don't get the new paradigm, and the bad news is that Hezbollah
(et al, and by their very nature) do. Though that's only bad (or
double-plus-ungood) if you accept, as I do, that the new paradigm
allows for a more effective understanding of reality. So if you still
like to pause to appreciate the action of phlogiston when you strike a
match, you may well be okay with current events. So many, God help us,
evidently are.
I've heard that Kuhn fiercely lamented the
application of SSR to anything other than the structure of scientific
revolutions, but that's how it usually is, when the street finds its
own uses for things.