If there are two technologies that have shaped the
life I lead today, they’re jets and nets. Affordable airfare lets me go
where the action is – wherever adventure beckons, necessity compels, or
duty calls – without having to establish residency anywhere. And the
Internet lets me do business and stay in touch no matter where I find
myself.
Cheap flights and ubiquitous worldwide communications are the stuff
of globalization. Ready travel lets people oppressed at home taste the
joys of free society, while the Net exposes them to the ideas and
customs underpinning that social order. The effect is viral, spreading
liberal values and economic growth to benighted dictatorships and
hopeless pits of poverty. So it’s difficult to grasp that these two
innovations might also be an imminent menace to Western civilization.
Yet that’s the counterintuitive thesis of UK rear admiral Chris Parry,
a Falklands vet, former commander of HMS Fearless, and the British military’s go-to guy for identifying emerging threats.
During a recent briefing at the time-honored Royal United Service
Institute – the oldest military think tank in the world, founded in
1831 by the Duke of Wellington – Parry imagined a future, circa 2030,
in which the war on terror is still rolling along and the terrorists
are winning. He describes a world so ripped up by nets and jets that
sovereign nation-states like the UK are collapsing economically,
politically, even physically. Then there are the people of that future,
who hop from country to country and bear allegiance to none.
“Globalization makes assimilation seem redundant and old-fashioned,” he
noted, pointing out that, rather than dissolving into the melting pot
of their host nations, immigrants are increasingly maintaining their
own cultural identity. Jets and nets make this possible. “Groups of
people are self-contained, going back and forth between their
countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and using instant
communication on phones and the Internet.” The result, Parry says, is
“reverse colonization,” in which the developing world’s teeming masses
conquer Western nations, as surely as the Goths sacked Rome.
It’s easy to pigeonhole Parry as an isolationist – and, indeed, much
of the public response to his speech came from anti-immigration wackos
who said, “We knew it all along.” But he has plenty of forward-thinking
company in these ideas. According to a loose school of
“fourth-generation warfare” theorists, connected, globe-trotting
terrorists are a bigger threat to the world order than hostile nations
are. The technological drivers of globalization have enabled stateless
barbarians to seize the initiative. You can’t keep them out by blocking
the border, and the harder you smash the failed states that nurture
them, the more they thrive. At the first sign of weakness, these
new-wave Vandals will log on to urge their diasporic compatriots to
attack you on your own soil. Failing that, they’ll hop on the next
flight, pick up their baggage, and sidle into Starbucks to download the
latest instructions from Abu Ayyub al Masri.
Parry paints a grim picture. Still, his vision gives me an
affirmative feeling about the future. If civilization is to overcome
barbarism, its leaders must outthink the marauders. And the sturdy
admiral’s foresight is a bold step in that direction. “An analysis of
trends and drivers can only go so far,” he writes. “We also need to
expect the unexpected – shocks will occur.” He’s not saying, “Kick the
Arabs out of Europe”; he’s saying we need to anticipate the emergence
of stateless aliens and rethink how host societies can integrate them.
That’s a rare display of intellectual flexibility in a government
official. Compare it with the Pentagon’s reflexive tendency to lash out
when challenged (if we can’t kill bin Laden, we’ll crush Saddam) and
with the Bush administration’s plaint that nobody could have expected
airliner attacks, Iraqi intifadas, or crumbling levees. We’ll stop
being blindsided when we grasp tomorrow’s shocks better than the bad
guys do – and that’s a positive, not a negative, scenario.
Nets and jets are never a one-way street, and even Parry’s reverse
colonization can reverse itself. Consider Somalia, which, for 15 years,
has been a running sore of new world disorder. Jets have evacuated
everyone who could buy a ticket and have flown in battalions of
jihadists. As for nets, this lawless maelstrom is one of the most
heavily wired regions of Africa; free of licensing, taxes, and
state-owned monopolies, entrepreneurs have been building out cell
capacity and Net nodes like Silicon Valley whiz kids. To complicate
matters, counter-terrorist warlords said to be financed by the US
recently lost the country to a loose association of Islamic militias.
This makes Somalia a prime case study for the darkest nets-and-jets
forecast.
And, yet, life there is calming down. The roadblocks have vanished,
and the drug-chewing youngsters in their machine-gun pickups are
contemplating the value of an education. Of course, even in a world of
nets and jets, barbarism is still less stable than civilization.
We live in a deeply paradoxical age, and it will take serious mental
agility to navigate the years to come. Capable and imaginative people,
both inside and outside of barbarity, are beginning to realize this.
And for every person who does, civilization gains a better chance of
survival.